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For Business, It’s The Summer Of Living Unpredictably

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For Business, It’s The Summer Of Living Unpredictably

No matter whether it’s the job participation level, the unemployment rate, inflation’s return, supply chain issues, consumer confidence or service interruption. For every recent positive indicator of economic vitality, there’s been an equally negative indicator of economic weakness. Each day seems to bring new, and potentially conflicting, economic data—and with that tactical whiplash for corporate leaders.

Take, for example, the latest employment statistics. According to the Department of Labor, June evidenced the strongest gain in hiring in 10 months; a notable indicator of recovery in the labor market and an increase in net job creation. On the other hand, there remain 6.8 million fewer jobs since the beginning of the pandemic; the unemployment rate rose somewhat; the pool of long term unemployed continues to increase and the growth in pandemic-related jobs (e.g. restaurant and retail) may be slowing.

And there’s the vexing issue of labor supply. The labor-force participation level remains below pre-pandemic levels (particularly amongst minorities). Some older workers who were laid off during the pandemic have elected to retire rather than to return to employment. The end of distribution of federal pandemic-driven unemployment insurance by some states has yet to produce the expected increase in work force engagement. Concerns with childcare, transportation and personal and public health remain for some as return-to-work barriers. And there are the larger issues associated with the reallocation of labor and work-from-home interests.
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