A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be devastating and a wider European war even worse. Whether a larger war happens would depend partly on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, partly on the West’s military response and partly on plain luck.
Although U.S. and European officials have said for days that a Russian invasion appeared imminent, Putin’s government on Tuesday publicly welcomed further security talks with the West. It also announced that some of its forces bracketing Ukraine will be returning to their regular bases, although the United States and its allies said Wednesday they saw no sign of a promised pullback and it was too early to tell whether the threat had receded.
War by its nature is unpredictable, and the stakes are enormous, not just for an overmatched Ukraine but for Europe and the United States. At risk, arguably, is the European security order established after World War II and then altered peacefully with the reunification of Germany, the demise of communism in Eastern Europe, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the expansion of NATO.
