During 2020 the U.S. economy was on a roller coaster. GDP plunged 5.0% and 31.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and then almost climbed out of the hole by growing 33.4% and 4.3% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Total economic output decreased 3.5% for the year.
However, with the availability of multiple Covid-19 vaccines and a growing vaccination rate, the economy is poised to deliver strong growth in 2021 as indicators show increasing economic activity.
The New York Federal Reserve publishes a “Weekly Economic Index” whose latest report shows a sharp upturn in March. It depicts an estimate for yearly GDP growth and it wasn’t until two weeks ago that its outlook showed year-over-year growth.
On a weekly basis Aneta Markowska, Jefferies Chief Economist, and Thomas Simons, Jefferies Money Market Economist, publish a report titled “Tracking the Reopening of the U.S. Economy with Real-Time Data.” It is a compilation of various economic indicators showing how the economy is performing long before many official U.S. government reports are generated. Its latest report has the economy at its highest level since March 14 last year but still 6.5% below the beginning of 2020.
