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US Housing Inflation: The Sleeping Giant That Might Tip The Fed’s Hand

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Todd David, the executive director of the Housing Action Coalition, a charity that works on housing policy in San Francisco, says all signs are pointing to a resurgence in rental costs in the Bay area after the pandemic-driven slump.

“A year from now, if we are not adding significant supply, which there’s no indication that we will . . . prices in San Francisco for rents are [going to be] at all-time high again,” he said. “The trend is up.”

Housing expenses are the sleeping giant that could tip the scales of the increasingly heated debate on US inflation. They are quickly emerging as a pivotal indicator for officials at the Federal Reserve, within the Biden administration, and among private economists.

So far this year, the shelter component of the consumer price index has shown smaller increases compared to the soaring expense of items such as used cars, airfares and energy.

But housing costs have nonetheless been edging up, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6 per cent in June compared to a 1.5 per cent annual rise in February.

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