When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The “he” there — just in case you’ve spent the last six years on another planet — is Donald Trump.
And the answers to those questions are “probably yes” and “definitely.” As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.
Let’s take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.
The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.
