Central banks are starting to tip-toe away from the emergency stimulus they deployed to fight the pandemic-driven global recession.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues have begun debating when and how to slow their asset-purchase program, while the People’s Bank of China is already curbing credit growth. Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Russia have hiked interest rates and others are starting to publicly detail how they may pull back support.
The global pivot will still be gradual. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are likely to keep doling out aid to their economies, while even those turning hawkish still bet the recent surge in inflation will soon pass and are pledging to avoid roiling financial markets. The path of the delta variant could also still upend sentiment and demand.
Balance sheets will keep expanding, albeit at a slower pace, and borrowing costs will stay close to historic lows.